Mar. 18, 2009 12:00 AM
Here’s a positive sign from a sector of metro Phoenix’s housing market: New-home prices appear to be stabilizing, or at least not taking any more big plunges.
For the past five months, the median price of a new house in the Valley has hovered around $210,000 after dipping to a three-year low of $200,000 in September 2008, according to analyst RL Brown’s latest “Phoenix Housing Market Letter.”
Valley resale-home prices have fallen almost 30 percent since September.
“We can’t be sure, but it’s become more likely that we are at or near the bottom of the new-home market crash here in metro Phoenix,” Brown said.
That’s cautious optimism, but still optimism.
Home building continues to slow, with only 248 single-family permits issued in Maricopa and Pinal counties in February. New-home sales, or closings, also are down, but nevertheless more than 713 deals closed last month. This means the area’s big backlog of speculatively built homes continues to shrink.
In the past six months, Brown said that new-home sales have outpaced the number of new homes built by 7,800 houses. Another good sign.
Foreclosures and the resale of those homes taken back by lenders continue to drag down the market. But it could be that foreclosures are almost done making their dent in new-home prices and sales.
Foreclosure forecast
Expect to see a drop in Valley foreclosures during March, predicts real-estate data expert Tom Ruff of the Information Market.
But, he said, it will only be a temporary drop.
Here’s why: February foreclosure numbers were higher because of a (lender) moratorium in late December and early January. That moratorium pushed back the foreclosures that would have been filed before February but were then filed in February.
Another foreclosure moratorium, prompted by the federal housing plan announced last month, is expected to start expiring soon. It depends on the lender when the hiatus on foreclosures is stopped.
That will lower March’s foreclosure numbers, Ruff said. But he said the drop expected this month won’t be permanent and will mean higher foreclosure levels in April and May.
“The (Valley’s current foreclosure) pattern can best be described as a bumpy road,” said Ruff, who tracks foreclosures.
