Archive for August 26th, 2009

AZ Central – Piecing together a No. 1 home builder

by J. Craig Anderson – Aug. 19, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Shareholders of Pulte Homes Inc. and Centex Corp. on Tuesday approved a $3.1 billion merger of the two companies, which Pulte officials said creates a new local and national market leader in home sales.

The merger will extend Pulte’s reach to first-time home buyers – the target market for Centex – while allowing Centex to benefit from Pulte’s upscale image, company officials said. Both firms’ shareholders approved the deal by an overwhelming majority.

While the combined company will retain the two distinct brands, it will be called Pulte Homes and will be based at Pulte’s existing headquarters in Bloomfield Hills, MichThe two companies hold a combined 16 percent share of the Phoenix-area market based on new-home sales closed through June 9, larger than any other builder, Pulte spokeswoman Jacque Petroulakis said.

The next-biggest Valley market-share holder is D.R. Horton Inc., the former local and national leader, with an 11 percent share, she said.

Previously, Pulte was the second-largest home builder in the Valley and nation, and Centex was No. 3.

The combined company will be better able to endure the current economic slump by consolidating operational expenses, Pulte Southwest area president John Chadwick said.

“There is tremendous value in fully leveraging our brands across all buyer segments so we can drive better results in traffic, sales and profitability,” Chadwick said via e-mail. “With the addition of the Centex brand, our brand portfolio is more balanced across all consumer segments, without leaning heavily toward one consumer segment over another.”

First-time homebuyers make up the largest share of the home-buying market – about 41 percent, up from 39 percent a year ago, according to a recent National Association of Realtors study.

The merger is a stock-only deal that leaves Pulte shareholders with 68 percent of the stock.

The new firm will trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “PHM.” The New York Stock Exchange symbol for Dallas-based Centex, “CTX,” will be retired.

Nether company’s stock saw much movement Tuesday, but both builders’ stock prices increased significantly during the past month on investor optimism that the struggling new-home industry was showing signs of recovery, Wall Street analysts said.

Pulte also owns Phoenix-based Del Webb Corp., developer of the Sun City adults-only communities and the all-ages Anthem communities.

Like most home builders, Pulte and Centex have reported huge revenue decreases in recent quarters, although Centex turned a net profit of $85.1 in its most recent quarter thanks to a $407.3 million income-tax benefit, up from a quarterly loss of $150.1 million a year earlier.

Pulte reported a second-quarter net loss of $189.5 million, compared with a $158.4 million loss a year earlier.

“This combination puts us in an excellent position to navigate through the current local and national housing downturn and accelerate our return to profitability,” Chadwick said.

AZ Central – After 27-month slide, Valley home prices holding steady

by J. Craig Anderson – Aug. 20, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

After a record-breaking 27 months of decline in the Valley’s median home price, some of the most influential local real-estate analysts predict that home values finally have hit the bottom of the slide.

Arizona State University Professor Karl Guntermann reported Wednesday that the median price has held steady long enough to cautiously predict a coming period of relative price stability.

That doesn’t mean all home prices will start to increase in the near future. Some houses, particularly the more expensive ones, should continue to decrease in value gradually, while less-expensive homes could hold steady or see moderate gains in value, Guntermann and other experts said.

Nor does it mean recent sellers are feeling any better about the amount they got for their homes. One couple who moved to Anthem recently liked the bargain they got here but still lamented the loss they took on a home in Washington state. Many sellers in the Valley felt the same pain.

“I lost $300,000 in equity on that home,” 68-year-old Steve Trover said. “I got a great deal (on the Anthem home), but I’m not going to forget that $300,000.”

Still, the overall rate of decline tracked by Guntermann’s ASU Repeat Sales Index is finally showing improvement rather than deterioration.

“Clearly, the rate of decline has bottomed out and appears to be moving in the right direction,” he said.

Caution is the guiding principle behind Guntermann’s research. He doesn’t call a trend a trend unless it has repeated itself at least three months in a row.

The positive trend first emerged in April and has remained consistent since, he said.

Guntermann tracks a sampling of homes that have sold multiple times in recent years, and he compares repeat sales of each home for changes in price.

In April, the median repeat home-sale price was 35 percent lower than it had been a year earlier. In May, the year-over-year difference decreased to 33 percent, and it has narrowed by an additional 2 percentage points each month since.

The actual median sale price has bobbed up and down slightly since April but has shown no major changes since then, Guntermann said. The median was $117,500 in April, and preliminary data show it was $119,000 in July, he added.

The median home prices peaked at $266,523 in June 2006, according to Phoenix-based Information Market.

Calling the bottom has been a subject of intense interest in metro Phoenix because much of the economy is tied to population growth and the building that springs from it.

Analyst Tom Ruff of Information Market said the ASU report validates a pronouncement he and colleague Mike Orr had made in April that home prices had hit bottom. “Lately, the news and the forecasts from leading economists have been much more positive, just as we said they would,” Ruff said.

Still, he and Orr said the housing market entered a new, less encouraging phase in July. The number of foreclosures hit a new all-time high of about 5,300, and the median home price slipped a bit.

“July was unlike the first six months of the year,” Orr said in his latest analysis. “We are now in a period of more uncertainty, with some more mixed signals coming from the data.”

In Guntermann’s preliminary data for June and July, the median price reached $120,000 in June and then decreased by $1,000 the following month.

Another issue on the horizon that could trigger a dip in home prices is an expected increase in home foreclosures in the coming months, according to leading auctioneers of bank-owned homes.

All of the local analysts interviewed said they expect the median home price to fall slightly in the coming months.

But housing analyst RL Brown and others noted that the Valley housing market always lags during the latter half of the year, and they advised homeowners not to panic.

Overall, Brown said he continues to be optimistic about the Valley’s long-term prospects, even though he recognizes that economic factors such as employment and the availability of credit will have a significant influence.

One big improvement from a year ago, he said, is that home builders have sold off much of the excess inventory they had been saddled with when scores of prospective buyers canceled their new-home contracts.

Brown pointed out that despite all the economic hurdles, fears and past mistakes, nearly 10,000 homes have been sold each month in Maricopa County for the past three months.

“The economy is fraught with problems,” he said, “but the fundamentals of this market are, by any reasonable definition, strong.”

www.theholmgroupaz.com

AZ Central – The Valley’s priciest home sales

Aug. 26, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

The founder of a company that organizes and directs large meetings and conventions, an attorney, a co-founder of an atheltic-apparel chain, a founder of a real-estate company in California, the owner of an interior-decorating company and the former owner of a chain of luxury vehicle franchises are among the buyers and sellers in this week’s priciest home sales.

$3,040,000

Robert Madden, as trustee of the DKBK Real Estate Trust paid cash for a 7,486-square-foot home with a pool originally built in 1984 southeast of the Paradise Valley Country Club in Paradise Valley. Madden is a partner at Blank Rome law firm in Washington, D.C. The home was sold by Janice Borovay Montana. Borovay Montana is founder and president of PEP Enterprises, which specializes in organizing and directing large meetings, conventions and motivational programs for domestic and international corporations. She is also president of

$2,700,000

Alan and Linda Cohen paid cash for a 4,939-square-foot home with a pool originally built in 1994 east of the Paradise Valley Country Club in Paradise Valley. Alan Cohen is a co-founder of Finish Line Inc. a chain of atheltic-apparel stores. He retired as CEO in 2008, but still serves as chairman of the board. The home was sold by Robert D. Voit, as trustee of the Robert D. Voit Trust. Voit is the founder, president and CEO of Voit Real Estate Services located in California, Las Vegas and Phoenix.

$2,442,976

Kerry T. Giovanini, as trustee of the Kerry T. Giovanini Trust and Giovanini Properties, a Wyoming general partnership, paid cash for a new home on the western side of the Silverleaf Club in Scottsdale. Giovanini is owner of American West Interiors. The home was sold by Camelot Homes Inc. of Scottsdale.

$2,365,000

Thomas A. Kinnish, as trustee of the Declaration of Trust of Thomas A. Kinnish, purchased an 8,070-square-foot home with a pool originally built in 2008 on Troon North’s Mountain Golf Course in Scottsdale. Kinnish and Richard Cogswell Jr. sold Laurel Motors Automotive Group in Chicago to AutoNation of Fort Lauderdale, Fla. in 2002. The home was sold by L19 Balancing Rock LLC of Phoenix.

$2,310,000

Farhad Nabavi bought a 7,284-square-foot home with a 576-square-foot pool originally built in 1980 east of the Paradise Valley Country Club in Paradise Valley. Nabavi is president and CEO of Pakon Engineered Products Inc. of Tempe. The home was sold by Navid and Donya Zamani, as trustees of the Zamani Family Trust. Navid Zamani is a cosmetic dentist in the East Valley.

USA Today – 2 reasons to buy a home now

by Sandra Block – Aug. 25, 2009 08:14 AM
USA Today

Your friend Walter is a real estate agent, and every time you run into him at the grocery store he suggests that this is an excellent time to buy a house. That’s not surprising, because Walter, like most real estate agents, is an eternal optimist. This time, though, he may be on to something.

While some economists believe home prices will remain low for the foreseeable future, other buyer-friendly incentives could disappear soon. If you’ve been on the fence about buying a home, here are some reasons to explore the other side:

•Record low interest rates. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 5.12% last week, the lowest level since the end of May, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac.

The average rate for a 5/1 hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage — which offers a fixed rate for five years and then adjusts — was 4.57%, the lowest since January 2005, according to Freddie Mac.

While the credit crisis exposed the risk of short-term ARMs, a 5/1 hybrid is still a good option for borrowers who don’t expect to stay in their home longer than five years, says Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans, an online mortgage lender based in Livonia, Mich.

“If you’re a young couple purchasing a home, and in the next five years you’ll need a larger place, or it’s highly likely you’ll be moving, it makes all the sense in the world” to use a five-year hybrid ARM, he says.

These low interest rates are unlikely to last, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. Rising budget deficits will likely push rates higher over the next few years, he says.

•The first-time home buyer’s tax credit. The economic stimulus package signed into law provides a tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers who purchase a home before Dec. 1. Unlike an earlier tax credit, this one doesn’t have to be repaid. The credit phases out for taxpayers whose adjusted gross income exceeds $75,000, or $150,000 for married couples.

The term “first-time home buyer” is a bit of a misnomer. If you haven’t owned a home in the past three years, you qualify. If your spouse has owned a home in the past three years, however, you’re not eligible.

The credit is refundable, which means that even if you owe less than $8,000 when you file your 2009 tax return, you’ll receive a refund for the balance. This feature makes the credit a valuable tax break for middle- or low-income families who pay little or no federal income tax.

To qualify for this tax break, you must close on the home by Dec. 1.

That may seem like a long way away, but the wheels of real estate transactions grind slowly these days, says Steven Fischer, president of the Georgia Association of Realtors.

In the wake of the credit crunch, lenders have tightened lending standards, which means it takes longer to get a loan approved, Fischer says. In addition, “There’s always that chance you will have that extra week or couple of weeks going back and forth trying to get documents at the last minute,” he says.

In the past, home buyers could usually close on the deal within 45 days after signing a contract to buy, Yun says. But these days, buyers should give themselves at least 60 days, he says.

You’ll need to give yourself even more time if you’re interested in buying a home that’s in foreclosure or is a “real estate owned” property (REO) — a home the bank repossessed after failing to sell it at a foreclosure auction.

“The window of opportunity is closing fast unless the tax credit is extended,” Yun says.

The NAR and other real estate trade groups are lobbying hard to get lawmakers to extend the credit into 2010. However, Congress has a busy schedule when it returns from the August recess, so there’s no guarantee the credit will be extended.

One downside to the tax credit is that you can’t claim it until you’ve closed on your home, which means you can’t use the money for your down payment. However, some state housing finance agencies are offering bridge loans to home buyers who qualify for the credit.

Some of these loans are interest-free; others charge a modest interest rate. Borrowers repay the money when they receive the tax credit. Some states require borrowers to contribute some funds toward the down payment.

The National Council of State Housing Agencies offers a list of agencies that offer loans at www.ncsha.org. Click on the link for “HFA First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit Loan Programs.”

www.theholmgroupaz.com

AZ Central – Valley’s commercial real-estate

by J. Craig Anderson – Aug. 26, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

The Valley’s commercial real-estate crisis isn’t just about buildings, it’s about everything and everyone inside.

The impact isn’t as easy to see as the fallout from the home-mortgage mess, with its sea of empty homes and for-sale signs, but it’s likely to become more noticeable to Valley consumers as the commercial crisis worsens this year, predicts Scottsdale consultant Robert Kline.

“It will affect them when they start to see their favorite hotel, restaurant or store go out of business,” said Kline, owner of R.W. Kline LLC. “This is also about jobs.” modifications as it does for home loans, but there is money in the Troubled Asset Relief Program to offset losses from bad commercial loans.

Kline, a former vice president at Pulte Homes, is doing his best to help as many property owners as possible avoid foreclosure. He formed the company in May 2008 to assist commercial-property owners at risk of defaulting on their mortgages and has become a national expert on the subject.

Preventing commercial foreclosure benefits the people and businesses leasing space inside. The foreclosure process takes months and can result in temporary maintenance, security and insurance problems while the property changes hands.

Kline’s firm, which represents more than 300 commercial-property owners nationwide, attempts to negotiate better repayment terms and extend the length of a loan if it makes sense.

The government doesn’t have formal help for commercial-loan

Kline’s company represents 27 Arizona commercial-property owners seeking loan modifications on about $960 million in debt.

Nationally, the country’s total outstanding commercial-mortgage debt exceeds $3.5 trillion, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Two-thirds of the mortgages Kline is attempting to modify had been sold to the investment market as commercial mortgage-backed securities, effectively scattering ownership of those loans to the wind.

Nationally, about 20 percent of commercial mortgages are securitized, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.

“A CMBS loan is a much, much harder type of loan to work out,” Kline said, in part because the negotiator must track down all investors in the loan and get their approval.

An unprecedented number of securitized commercial mortgages will reach maturity in the fourth quarter, Kline said, forcing borrowers to pay off the loans or turn over the properties they bought or built on credit.

When times were good, developers and building owners would refinance or sell, but today many buildings are worth less than the loan balance, and refinancing options are scarce.

The current universe of lending capital only contains 1 dollar for every 3 dollars owed, Kline said, which means two-thirds of securitized mortgages due today have no hope of being repaid in the near term.

Companies like Kline’s are wheeling, dealing and pleading with commercial lenders to negotiate with owners until the economic recovery arrives.

For a commercial-loan modification to work, it must adequately address the problems of affordability, negative equity and maturity, Kline said.

In other words, the monthly payment must be doable, the loan has got to be worth repaying, and there can’t be a balloon payment due within the next three years, during which time the lending situation is not expected to improve.

“The commercial market is going to be on its heels next year, and it’s going to be virtually impossible to get a loan,” he said.

More than anything, Kline said commercial-property owners need to seek help from a commercial-loan negotiator or attorney as soon as they start having financial trouble.

“We’re the lifeguard, and we’ll throw you a life ring,” he said, “but if you’re already 2 feet under water, you’re not going to be able to grab it.”

www.theholmgroupaz.com


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