Archive for March 22nd, 2010

USA Today – More investors with cash are buying houses

by Stephanie Armour – Mar. 22, 2010 10:05 AM
USA Today

More home buyers are snapping up properties with cash, a trend driven in large part by investors returning to the market after four years of falling prices around the country.

The share of home sales involving all-cash transactions was 26% in January, up from 18% a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. The figures come from a survey of members about their most recent transactions. Many home buyers also are paying cash, but investors are largely using cash so they can avoid paying interest charges on loans and get a larger return on their investment.

Other NAR data also show a pickup in investment activity.

Home purchases made by buyers identified as investors climbed to 17% in January, up from 15% in December and 12% in November.

“We bottomed out in 2008, and in late 2009, prices stabilized and investors have returned,” says Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American CoreLogic. “It’s a different type of investor going after foreclosed properties and expecting to hold on for longer time frames.”

Many investors say they’re financing their purchases with cash on hand, rather than borrowing.

Evan Spinrod of San Francisco bought three rental properties in November and February and now owns 21 in four states. The rent he collects gives him an 8.5% annual return on his investment. Some of his homes are worth about $165,000. “I’m still looking,” Spinrod says. “You can’t build these houses for the prices they’re selling them. I’ve always seen that the real wealth was in real estate. People have been sitting on cash, and there’s no interest from the bank (to pay).”

Leonard Baron, a real estate professor at San Diego State University, has bought three homes with cash in the San Diego area in the past eight months, ranging in price from $100,000 to $130,000. He rents the properties.

Baron says now is an ideal time to make such purchases. “It’s because prices have dropped so much and rents really haven’t,” he says. “The deals were unbelievable.”

Some Realtors also say they’re seeing increased investor activity.

“Flippers, rehabbers, investors … are, in fact, buying,” says Lisa Johnson, with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Haverhill, Mass. “I’m getting builders who have stopped building and are instead buying up condos and single-family homes to fix them up and sell them. It’s a neat change I haven’t seen in four years.”

All-cash purchases also reflect a growing number of investors buying higher-end properties without credit, says NAR spokesman Walter Molony. That’s a sign that some investors see real estate prices as having nowhere to go but up. All-cash offers give buyers a competitive edge on rival offers — even higher ones — that are dependent on financing. Cash deals can close faster and are less likely to fall through.

“You have to have cash to be able to close quickly and have negotiating power. Cash is king,” says Tanya Marchiol, president of Phoenix-based Team Investments, which buys about 70 properties a month with cash it raises from investors. “We do want to flip it or generate cash flow (through renting it out). Now is the time to buy for cash flow. We know the market is going to rebound.”

Some investors say the current real estate market is an ideal time to buy because homes are so low priced, they are bound to hold their value.

That’s the philosophy of Jim McClelland of Tinley Park, Ill.

He is buying about 120 to 150 entry-level homes in the Chicago area this year and owns a total of about 300 properties.

He says now is a good time to buy because properties going into foreclosure are no longer just one-bedroom, fixer-uppers but nicer, split-level brick homes with more bedrooms that will probably appreciate to a higher value.

That’s because so many prime-rate borrowers who bought more expensive homes have gone into foreclosure.

He puts about $60,000 into upgrading a property, then rents it out.

“Do I think this year will be a better time to invest than in 2009? Yes,” McClelland says. “There have always been foreclosures. The difference now is you get a better home for the same kind of money. You’re sitting on better inventory. People get into real estate for financial independence. It’s not a quick fix. It appreciates. It doesn’t happen overnight.”

AZ Central – Home values in Phoenix metro may fall again because of shadow inventory

by Catherine Reagor – Mar. 20, 2010 11:06 PM
The Arizona Republic

Phoenix area home prices could experience another drop in value because of tens of thousands of properties that could flood the market in 2010.

This shadow inventory, located across metropolitan Phoenix, is threatening the recovery of the real estate market and overall Arizona economy.

It includes an unknown number of pending foreclosures, bank-owned homes bought at foreclosure auctions by investors who might try for a quick sale, thousands of homes foreclosed on by banks that have not yet put them up for resale and homes that will go into foreclosure after their owners abandon them and walk away from their mortgages.

The housing market has an inventory of homes for sale. But the shadow inventory is the number of additional, bargain-priced homes that could be added to the market anytime this year, a number of homes beyond any regular turnover in home ownership. These new listings – most tied to foreclosures – could flood the market and further drag down values.

Economists and housing analysts are worried that if this inventory of what would become bargain-priced homes enters the market in the coming year, it could cause another drop in home prices in Arizona. Phoenix home prices began to tick up during the second half of last year after recovering from the first round of cheap foreclosure homes dumped on the market.

California, Nevada and Florida also face an oversupply of shadow inventory.

What also concerns market-watchers is that no one can accurately predict how big the shadow inventory is or when any of these houses will hit the market.

Shadow inventory is the most feared and misunderstood term in the real-estate market now, even more than “bubble” during the housing peak.

“Phoenix’s shadow inventory is very real and very scary when you think about all the homes that could flood the market,” Arizona housing analyst RL Brown said. “Some people are in denial about the area’s shadow inventory, but by being informed on what could impact the market, we can all make better real-estate decisions.”

Phoenix’s shadow inventory includes the following:

• Homes lenders have taken back. More than 5,000 homes that have been taken back by lenders have not yet been listed for resale.

• Homes that homeowners lose. The homes of thousands of homeowners who have unsuccessfully tried to obtain loan modifications could soon fall into foreclosure. Another wave of homes bought with adjustable-rate mortgages also will start resetting this year, forcing still more foreclosures.

• Homes that homeowners abandon. Anywhere from 30 percent to 50 percent of homeowners now owe more than their homes are worth. Many can still afford their mortgage payments but may choose to walk away. Potentially, thousands more homes could be listed for sale by homeowners who aren’t underwater but are still giving up on the market.

• Homes investors may try to flip. More than 50,000 inexpensive foreclosure homes were bought in the past 15 months by investors, who could try to resell them anytime.

Phoenix’s shadow inventory could cause more damage to the area’s already struggling housing market. How much depends on the pending actions of the key players involved.

Market psychology

Part of the reason the shadow inventory is so feared is that it’s so uncertain. There’s no way to tell what current homeowners – residents, lenders or investors – might do next.

Among the residents, many are pursuing loan modifications that could keep them in their homes, but those are far from a sure thing.

“Loan modifications aren’t working like the government expected,” said Arizona economist and real-estate investor Elliott Pollack. “Investors bought up a lot of foreclosure homes last year, but those homes will soon be back on the market.”

What looms larger for Pollack, however, is the uncertain number of people who may just walk away from their mortgages. “The real fear factor though is how many homeowners will give up.”

A growing number of homeowners who can afford their mortgages but now have loans far higher than the value of their homes are frustrated and considering walking away. Some cannot refinance or sell. Others run the numbers and see little value in sticking with their mortgage in this market. The scale and impact of this group of the shadow inventory is causing the most concern because it is impossible to predict.

Among the lenders, many are bogged down with an overload of foreclosures and requests for loan modifications. Those backlogs of homes constitute a large part of Phoenix’s shadow inventory. What they do with these homes could help the market or further damage it.

So far, lenders are opting for foreclosure over loan modifications in most cases. Recent federal figures showed only 15 percent of the homeowners eligible for loan modifications have received one. A wave of adjustable-rate and negative-amortization loans taken out during the boom that will begin resetting this year will add to the growing list of homeowners facing foreclosure and asking for loan modifications. Some of these borrowers will see their mortgage payments climb by as much as 50 percent this year.

Any homeowner who doesn’t receive a loan modification or can’t sell the home through a short sale can be one more foreclosure in the making, adding to the shadow inventory.

Lenders know they can take back Phoenix homes through foreclosures and get them off their books quickly by slashing prices and reselling them to investors. They have been doing this for the past 15 months.

Uncertainty about what those investors will do with the more than 50,000 foreclosure homes they already have bought also stokes fears about a shadow inventory. Most foreclosure homes bought by investors have been turned into rentals. Now, there are so many rental properties competing for tenants, rents are falling. If new investors find they can’t make money off rentals, some are likely to try to resell those homes to try to make a quick profit.

But Phoenix real-estate data analyst Tom Ruff of the Information Market doesn’t think investors will dump too many homes on the market this year because most of them paid cash for the foreclosure homes and don’t have to count on high rents to make money.

“I don’t think Phoenix’s shadow inventory will cause another crash,” Ruff said. “But the housing market’s recovery is going to take longer and will be more drawn-out than many expected.”

Looming decisions

The danger of Phoenix’s shadow inventory can be averted through some key decisions by lenders, investors and homeowners.

If banks complete more government-backed loan modifications and refrain from selling the homes they take back through foreclosure all at once, it would keep another glut of low-priced homes from flooding the market.

If investors who paid cash for foreclosure homes can rent the properties and hold onto them for at least a few years, it would allow more of Phoenix’s inventory of foreclosure homes to sell first so prices can moderate and even start climbing.

What some homeowners decide will depend on how much help they get from their lenders. If a large number give their homes back to the lenders, that could have the biggest effect, driving prices down even further. But if lenders work with more homeowners who are underwater, either by helping them refinance or by cutting some of the loans’ principal, it could convince more people to stay and continue to pay their mortgages.

The number of homes listed for sale is already climbing. There are about 42,500 homes on the market in metro Phoenix, according to housing analyst Mike Orr’s Cromford Report. That is up from 40,000 in December. Metro Phoenix’s median home-sales price has been hovering around $130,000 during the second half of 2009, but it has started to fall again. The area’s median sale price is now about $127,000.

An additional 50,000 inexpensive homes – the number of pending foreclosures in Phoenix – dumped on the market could drag a home valued at $125,000 down to $120,000, said national housing analyst Tim Sullivan of San Diego.

Still, the shadow inventory doesn’t have to mean more market damage, if residents, lenders and investors commit to helping the market instead of hurting it.

“If a bunch of foreclosure homes aren’t dumped on the market at once, and the current inventory of foreclosure homes can continue to slowly move through the system,” Sullivan said, “then prices will continue to level out.”

www.theholmgroupaz.com

AZ Central – Foreclosures take toll on central areas

by J. Craig Anderson – Mar. 21, 2010 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

The Valley’s foreclosure wave swept inward in 2009, moving from younger communities at its outer edge toward older, wealthier and more centrally located areas.

The hardest-hit community by far was in west-central Phoenix, where foreclosures in two ZIP codes, 85017 and 85019, accounted for at least 72 percent of all home-resale transactions – about 1,070 sales out of 1,315, according to the latest Valley home-values data from The Information Market. The previous year, foreclosures accounted for about 60 percent of the area’s sales.

Housing-industry groups such as the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals say that unscrupulous lenders continued to push predatory, subprime loans in west-central Phoenix well into late 2007 – months after mortgage brokers in other areas had discontinued their use.

As a result, foreclosure activity began almost immediately afterward and hasn’t slowed since.

The ZIP code with the highest percentage of foreclosure-related sales was 85034, in southeast Phoenix, where foreclosures made up 74 percent of activity. But the area’s transactions in 2009 totaled just 27, too small a number to produce statistically significant results.

Foreclosure activity continued to plague many of the more remote communities that already had suffered in 2008. For instance, 47 percent of 2009′s home-sales transactions in Queen Creek involved foreclosures, up from 34 percent the previous year, according to the data.

Areas of the Valley that had been relatively unaffected by foreclosures in 2008 got hit. In Paradise Valley, metro Phoenix’s wealthiest ZIP code of 85253, sales involving foreclosed homes increased from 4 percent in 2008 to 22 percent the following year.


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